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拆解财务差异成因，生成瀑布分析与管理层解读说明。
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请帮我安装 askskill 上的 "variance-analysis" 技能： 1. 下载 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/anthropics/knowledge-work-plugins/main/finance/skills/variance-analysis/SKILL.md 2. 保存为 ~/.claude/skills/variance-analysis/SKILL.md 3. 装好后重载技能，告诉我可以用了
请分析以下预算与实际数据的差异，按价格、销量、成本结构等驱动因素拆解，并输出管理层可读的差异说明与瀑布图分析框架： 预算收入 1200 万，实际收入 1080 万；预算毛利率 35%，实际毛利率 31%；预算营销费用 180 万，实际 210 万。
输出收入、毛利和费用差异的驱动拆解，附简明管理层说明和可用于汇报的瀑布分析结构。
请对比本月与上月经营数据，识别收入和费用变化的主要驱动，并撰写一段适合月度经营复盘会的差异说明。 上月收入 950 万，本月收入 1020 万；上月人力成本 260 万，本月 275 万；上月渠道费用 90 万，本月 120 万。
输出环比增减的关键原因、影响程度排序，以及适合会议材料的文字解读。
我需要给管理层写一页财务差异说明，请根据以下信息整理成‘结果—原因—建议’结构，并突出最重要的 3 个波动项：收入较预算低 8%，主要因北区销量下滑；原材料成本高于预算 6%，主要因采购单价上涨；行政费用低于预算 4%，因差旅支出减少。
输出适合高层阅读的一页式差异摘要，包含重点波动、原因归纳和后续建议。
Important: This skill assists with variance analysis workflows but does not provide financial advice. All analyses should be reviewed by qualified financial professionals before use in reporting.
Techniques for decomposing variances, materiality thresholds, narrative generation, waterfall chart methodology, and budget vs actual vs forecast comparisons.
The most fundamental variance decomposition. Used for revenue, cost of goods, and any metric that can be expressed as Price x Volume.
Formula:
Total Variance = Actual - Budget (or Prior)
Volume Effect = (Actual Volume - Budget Volume) x Budget Price
Price Effect = (Actual Price - Budget Price) x Actual Volume
Mix Effect = Residual (interaction term), or allocated proportionally
Verification: Volume Effect + Price Effect = Total Variance
(when mix is embedded in the price/volume terms)
Three-way decomposition (separating mix):
Volume Effect = (Actual Volume - Budget Volume) x Budget Price x Budget Mix
Price Effect = (Actual Price - Budget Price) x Budget Volume x Actual Mix
Mix Effect = Budget Price x Budget Volume x (Actual Mix - Budget Mix)
Example — Revenue variance:
Used when analyzing blended rates across segments with different unit economics.
Formula:
Rate Effect = Sum of (Actual Volume_i x (Actual Rate_i - Budget Rate_i))
Mix Effect = Sum of (Budget Rate_i x (Actual Volume_i - Expected Volume_i at Budget Mix))
Example — Gross margin variance:
Used for analyzing payroll and people-cost variances.
Total Comp Variance = Actual Compensation - Budget Compensation
Decompose into:
1. Headcount variance = (Actual HC - Budget HC) x Budget Avg Comp
2. Rate variance = (Actual Avg Comp - Budget Avg Comp) x Budget HC
3. Mix variance = Difference due to level/department mix shift
4. Timing variance = Hiring earlier/later than planned (partial-period effect)
5. Attrition impact = Savings from unplanned departures (partially offset by backfill costs)
Used for operating expense analysis when price/volume is not applicable.
Total OpEx Variance = Actual OpEx - Budget OpEx
Decompose by:
1. Headcount-driven costs (salaries, benefits, payroll taxes, recruiting)
2. Volume-driven costs (hosting, transaction fees, commissions, shipping)
3. Discretionary spend (travel, events, professional services, marketing programs)
4. Contractual/fixed costs (rent, insurance, software licenses, subscriptions)
5. One-time / non-recurring (severance, legal settlements, write-offs, project costs)
6. Timing / phasing (spend shifted between periods vs plan)
Materiality thresholds determine which variances require investigation and narrative explanation. Set thresholds based on:
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围绕客户问题进行多来源调研与溯源，快速整理背景并支持准确回复。
帮助你复盘产品指标趋势，定位异常并给出可执行改进建议。